On Monday, a ridge of high pressure builds over much of the country. A low is then forecast to approach central New Zealand from the northwest on Tuesday, while a front moves northeast across the South Island. The front should then move northeast across the North Island on Wednesday. A strong and moist north to northwest flow lies to the north of the low and front, while the front is followed by a cooler south to southwest flow. On Thursday, another low approaches New Zealand from the northwest, spreading strong and moist easterlies across the upper North Island.

From late Tuesday to early Wednesday, there is low confidence of severe gale north to northwesterlies affecting south Taranaki, Wellington, southern Wairarapa and the Marlborough Sounds. Meanwhile, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Buller and northwest Tasman late Tuesday, then for north Taranaki, Waitomo, Taumarunui, western and southern parts of Taupo, the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and the Tararua Range from late Tuesday through to Wednesday, and for Northland on Wednesday. Finally, on Thursday, there is low risk of severe gale easterlies and warning amounts of rain, especially in eastern areas, for Northland, Auckland, and the Coromandel Peninsula.