Severe Weather Outlook

Valid from Monday 04-Jul-2022 to Thursday 07-Jul-2022

Issued: 2:08pm Saturday 2 Jul 2022

On Monday, a ridge of high pressure builds over much of the country. A low is then forecast to approach central New Zealand from the northwest on Tuesday, while a front moves northeast across the South Island. The front should then move northeast across the North Island on Wednesday. A strong and moist north to northwest flow lies to the north of the low and front, while the front is followed by a cooler south to southwest flow. On Thursday, another low approaches New Zealand from the northwest, spreading strong and moist easterlies across the upper North Island.

From late Tuesday to early Wednesday, there is low confidence of severe gale north to northwesterlies affecting south Taranaki, Wellington, southern Wairarapa and the Marlborough Sounds. Meanwhile, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Buller and northwest Tasman late Tuesday, then for north Taranaki, Waitomo, Taumarunui, western and southern parts of Taupo, the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and the Tararua Range from late Tuesday through to Wednesday, and for Northland on Wednesday. Finally, on Thursday, there is low risk of severe gale easterlies and warning amounts of rain, especially in eastern areas, for Northland, Auckland, and the Coromandel Peninsula.

Low confidence:

a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:

a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Saturday, 02-Jul-2022

Issued: 9:40am Saturday 2 Jul 2022

A front moves onto the south of the South Island late tonight. There is mostly an associated low risk of a few thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain about central and southern Fiordland and Stewart Island tonight, however in the south of Fiordland the risk of thunderstorms is moderate. These thunderstorms if they occur are expected to bring heavy rain and small hail. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.



Valid to Noon Sunday, 03-Jul-2022

Issued: 7:26pm Saturday 2 Jul 2022

Updated at 7:25pm Saturday - Low risk added to coastal North Otago and Canterbury. A front and associated rain-band moves across the south of the South Island during the early hours of Sunday morning. There is a moderate risk of a few embedded thunderstorms about southern Fiordland and Stewart Island in the early morning, and a low risk about northern Fiordland, southern Westland, and coastal parts of Southland and Clutha. These thunderstorms could bring brief heavy rain and small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two thunderstorms about coastal Canterbury and North Otago after dawn, although if any do occur they may be more likely offshore. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Sunday morning.



Valid to Midnight Sunday, 03-Jul-2022

Issued: 7:27pm Saturday 2 Jul 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period. Reviewed at 7:25pm Saturday - No changes.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.