Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 8:56am Saturday 27 Jun 2026

Valid Monday 29-Jun-2026

A southeast flow affects the North Island, while a high builds over the South Island.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Tuesday 30-Jun-2026

High pressure covers much of New Zealand.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Wednesday 01-Jul-2026

High pressure covers much of New Zealand.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Thursday 02-Jul-2026

High pressure covers central and northern New Zealand. A front approaches Fiordland from the Tasman Sea, setting up a north to northeast flow over the lower South Island.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Sunday, 28-Jun-2026

Issued: 7:15pm Saturday 27 Jun 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.