Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:07am Monday 16 Feb 2026

Valid Wednesday 18-Feb-2026

The low east of the country continues to weaken and drift southward.

There is minimal risk of severe weather affecting New Zealand.

Valid Thursday 19-Feb-2026

A weak front moves northeast over the South Island.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Friday 20-Feb-2026

A showery southwesterly flow affects the Nation.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Saturday 21-Feb-2026

A westerly flow covers the country, with a weak front moving onto Fiordland late in the day.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Noon Tuesday, 17-Feb-2026

Issued: 7:28pm Monday 16 Feb 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Valid to Midnight Tuesday, 17-Feb-2026

Issued: 7:24am Tuesday 17 Feb 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Valid to Noon Wednesday, 18-Feb-2026

Issued: 7:51am Tuesday 17 Feb 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.