A westerly flow should weaken later on Monday as a ridge of high pressure develops over the country. On Sunday and early Monday, there is low confidence of severe gale west to northwesterlies about the far south coast including Stewart Island.

On Tuesday, a low approaches northern New Zealand from the North Tasman Sea and may move southeast across the North Island on Wednesday. This system spreads a moist northeast flow across the North Island, followed by a southwest flow later on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be strong to gale, especially in those places near the low centre. There is some uncertainty with the speed and track of the low, but at this stage there is low confidence of significant rainfall affecting Northland later on Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty on Wednesday.