Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: 10:27am Tuesday 8 Jul 2025
Valid Thursday 10-Jul-2025
A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for Tasman District northwest of Motueka from Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning, and there is moderate confidence that the Watch will be upgraded to a Warning.
There is also low confidence that rainfall amounts about southern Westland and northern Fiordland will require a Heavy Rain Warning.
Valid Friday 11-Jul-2025
Over the North Island, there is moderate confidence that rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about central areas from Coromandel Peninsula, southern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti to Taranaki, northern Whanganui and the central high country (including Tongariro National Park), and low confidence about Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island and northern Waikato,
In the South Island, there is moderate confidence that northerly rainfall will also reach warning criteria about Marlborough and Tasman/Nelson, and low confidence for southern Westland.
Additionally, there is low confidence that north or northeasterly winds could reach severe gale about exposed parts of the central North Island, the Kaikoura Coast and Banks Peninsula for a time late in the day.
Valid Saturday 12-Jul-2025
There is moderate confidence that heavy rain about eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti will continue into Saturday morning, and low confidence that periods of rain about the Tararua Range will require a Heavy Rain Warning.
Valid Sunday 13-Jul-2025
There is low confidence that periods of rain about the Tararua Range will require a Heavy Rain Warning.
Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.
Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST
Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to Midnight Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025
Issued: 7:15pm Tuesday 8 Jul 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.