Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:11am Sunday 11 Oct 2026

Valid Tuesday 13-Oct-2026

The front, preceded by a strong northwest flow, moves onto southern New Zealand from the Tasman Sea, bringing rain.

There is low confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about Fiordland north of Doubtful Sound and the ranges of Westland south of Haast.

Valid Wednesday 14-Oct-2026

The front, preceded by a strong northwest flow, moves northwards across southern and central New Zealand, followed by cool southerlies.

There is low confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall in the ranges of the Westland District, with spillover into the adjacent headwaters of Otago and Canterbury. A brief period of rain is also possible across the remainder of Otago, but amounts there aren't expected to approach warning criteria. There is also low confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about the ranges of the Buller District including the Paparoa Range.

In addition, there is low confidence northerly winds will reach severe gale in exposed parts of Wellington, as depicted on the chart.

Valid Thursday 15-Oct-2026

The front moves northeast across the North Island with a period of rain, followed by a trough there later in the day. Cool southerlies affect the South Island, with rain or showers in southern and eastern regions. Although there is minimal risk of severe weather, snow may affect some of the higher South Island roads and high country farms.

Valid Friday 16-Oct-2026

A cold and strong southerly flow affects New Zealand, with showers for most places, and possible snow for the mountain passes. However, there is minimal risk of severe weather.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Sunday, 11-Oct-2026

Issued: 8:16am Sunday 11 Oct 2026

A weak front moves over the northwest of the North Island this morning, then a combination of afternoon and early evening wind convergence and cold air in the upper atmosphere is expected to bring heavy showers to the east of the North Island. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for much of the North Island from Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula southwards, excluding Horowhenua to Wellington as depicted on the chart. However, for a time this afternoon, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate over Gisborne/Tairawhiti, Hawke's Bay, northern Manawatu and the Tararua District. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 20 mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.



Valid to Noon Monday, 12-Oct-2026

Issued: 9:29am Sunday 11 Oct 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Valid to Midnight Monday, 12-Oct-2026

Issued: 9:29am Sunday 11 Oct 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.