A low near Northland is moving slowly southeast. Fronts associated with the low are bringing rain to Northland, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti this morning and afternoon. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and there is a low risk of downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. A low risk of thunderstorms exists until tonight over the whole Bay of Plenty region and south of the moderate risk area in Gisborne/Tairawhiti. For Northland, there is a low risk thunderstorms until tonight, with a low risk of localised downpours this morning and afternoon. About inland Taranaki and east to about Ohakune, there is a low risk of thunderstorms this afternoon. Elsewhere, the risk of severe convection or thunderstorms is minimal.

A large low over the North Island slowly moves off to the east. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about Gisborne/Tairawhiti north of Gisborne City during the morning. Elsewhere, the risk of severe convection or thunderstorms is minimal.

The low continues to move away to the east. Showers are likely to develop about Waikato, Waitomo and Taumarunui during the afternoon and there is a low risk of thunderstorms in these areas during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, there is minimal risk of severe convection or thunderstorms.