Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:27am Tuesday 8 Jul 2025

Valid Thursday 10-Jul-2025

A northerly flow should cover New Zealand on Thursday, with bands of rain or showers affecting northern and western parts of the country.

A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for Tasman District northwest of Motueka from Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning, and there is moderate confidence that the Watch will be upgraded to a Warning.

There is also low confidence that rainfall amounts about southern Westland and northern Fiordland will require a Heavy Rain Warning.

Valid Friday 11-Jul-2025

A front in the Tasman Sea spreads onto New Zealand during Friday, bringing a period of heavy rain to northern and western parts of both the North and South Islands. A strong northerly flow precedes the front.

Over the North Island, there is moderate confidence that rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about central areas from Coromandel Peninsula, southern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti to Taranaki, northern Whanganui and the central high country (including Tongariro National Park), and low confidence about Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island and northern Waikato,

In the South Island, there is moderate confidence that northerly rainfall will also reach warning criteria about Marlborough and Tasman/Nelson, and low confidence for southern Westland.

Additionally, there is low confidence that north or northeasterly winds could reach severe gale about exposed parts of the central North Island, the Kaikoura Coast and Banks Peninsula for a time late in the day.

Valid Saturday 12-Jul-2025

The front should move off the country on Saturday morning, and a northwesterly flow spreads over the country.

There is moderate confidence that heavy rain about eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti will continue into Saturday morning, and low confidence that periods of rain about the Tararua Range will require a Heavy Rain Warning.

Valid Sunday 13-Jul-2025

A west to northwest flow covers New Zealand on Sunday, with bands of rain or showers affecting western areas.

There is low confidence that periods of rain about the Tararua Range will require a Heavy Rain Warning.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025

Issued: 7:15pm Tuesday 8 Jul 2025

A front is expected to move onto western parts of the South Island and onto Northland later in the day, with a low risk of thunderstorms as depicted on the chart. The risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate however about the Westland District from evening, with localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25 mm/h and small hail possible. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.