Unsettled, with strong cold southerlies spreading over the country during Wednesday and Thursday

A broad area of low pressure is expected to cover the South Island on Monday, with a front and northerlies clearing the North Island. The low shifts slowly to the southeast on Tuesday, with embedded troughs and showers passing over the country in the west to southwest flow. A bitterly cold southerly is expected to to move north over the South Island on Wednesday, then the North Island on Thursday, with snow to low levels about the South Island.

On Monday, there is a high confidence that rainfall accumulations will exceed warning amounts about eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, with northeast gales about central and western parts of the North Island south of Auckland and north of Manawatu. Watches are currently in force.

Meanwhile, southerlies over the lower South Island bring rain and the moderate risk of warning amounts about southern Fiordland, Southland, Clutha and Dunedin about and south of the Peninsula.

During Wednesday and Thursday, there is a moderate risk of severe gale west to southwesterly winds about Northland, Auckland, and Coromandel Peninsula, with a low risk of severe southerly gales about the east coast of the South Island from Otago through to Marlborough. Cold temperatures are expected, with snow to low levels about eastern and southern parts of the South Island, and about the central plateau of the North Island. There is a low risk that snow accumulations will exceed warning amounts from about 400 metres about southern Fiordland, Southland, Clutha, Dunedin south of Otago Peninsula and Banks Peninsula.