Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: 9:45am Friday 13 Jun 2025
Valid Sunday 15-Jun-2025
A trough lies slow-moving over the upper North Island, bringing rain or showers mainly to Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland. There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations may approach warning criteria.
Valid Monday 16-Jun-2025
The trough continues to bring rain or showers to Auckland and northern Coromandel Peninsula, and there is low confidence that accumulations may approach warning criteria.
Valid Tuesday 17-Jun-2025
The trough weakens over the upper North Island, and a ridge of high pressure spreads over the country.
There is minimal risk of severe weather.
Valid Wednesday 18-Jun-2025
The ridge of high pressure moves onto the North Island, while a moist northerly flow brings rain to the west coast of the South Island.
There is minimal risk of severe weather.
Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.
Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST
Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to Midnight Friday, 13-Jun-2025
Issued: 7:31am Friday 13 Jun 2025
An unstable westerly flow over the northern North Island gradually eases, while cooler southerlies strengthen over central New Zealand. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about eastern Bay of Plenty and the ranges of of Gisborne/Tairawhiti this morning. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms for Great Barrier Island, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taranaki, Whanganui, Taihape, Manawatu, Horowhenua, Kapiti Coast, Hawke's Bay and the Tararua District, although the risk becomes minimal from Taranaki and Taumarunui southwards this evening, as depicted on the chart. In addition, although not depicted on the chart, there is a low risk of thunderstorms at the Chatham Islands until late afternoon. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand today.
Valid to Noon Saturday, 14-Jun-2025
Issued: 9:11am Friday 13 Jun 2025
A showery westerly flow continues over the northern North Island. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for Auckland, and near the west coast of Waikato and Waitomo, although the risk for Waitomo is only before dawn, as drawn on the chart. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand during Saturday morning.
Valid to Midnight Saturday, 14-Jun-2025
Issued: 9:16am Friday 13 Jun 2025
The unstable westerly flow over northern New Zealand eases. Meanwhile, a trough that is followed by a change to easterly winds moves slowly northwards onto the Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato. This increases the shower activity, especially about the Coromandel Peninsula. Throughout the latter half of Saturday there is a low risk of thunderstorms about Coromandel Peninsula. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for the west of Northland south of Dargaville, Great Barrier Island, Auckland, and Waikato. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.