Humid and unstable conditions are expected to continue over the northern and central North Island today. For most of the day, there exists a moderate risk of thunderstorms about the Hauraki Gulf, eastern Waikato, the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, Taupo, inland Gisborne and northern Hawke's Bay. If thunderstorms occur, they are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour. Over Bay of Plenty and eastern Taupo there is a moderate risk that some of these thunderstorms will be SEVERE this afternoon, evening and tonight, bringing localised downpours with intensities of 25 to 40 mm per hour. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening about eastern areas of Northland, Auckland and Waikato, as well as all of Waitomo, Taumarunui and northern Taranaki. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour. For coastal Waikato south of Raglan, Waitomo, Taumarunui and northern Taranaki (from about Mount Messenger northwards), there is a moderate risk that some of these thunderstorms will be SEVERE, while further north the risk of severe thunderstorms is low. Downpours with intensities of 25 to 40 mm per hour are possible with the severe thunderstorms. Outside of these areas, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for all northern and central North Island areas, as shown on the chart. No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

Humid and unstable conditions remain over the North Island during Sunday. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for all the North Island, north of about Palmerston North. For the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, Taupo and parts of Waikato and Gisborne there is moderate risk of thunderstorms during the morning. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and there is a low risk of them becoming severe with downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

The humid conditions, combined with afternoon heating is expected to lead to showers and possible thunderstorms forming over much of the North Island. As shown on the chart, there is moderate risk of thunderstorms in most North Island areas during the afternoon and evening, with the risk continuing into the night about Auckland and southern Northland. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and there is a low risk of severe thunderstorms with downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. Outside these areas, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for the remainder of Northland, much of Wellington, Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds. No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.