Afternoon heating and wind convergences will produce showers over inland areas of the central and eastern North Island and northern South Island this afternoon and evening. This afternoon and evening there is a low risk of thunderstorms about the ranges of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Hawke's Bay, inland eastern Bay of Plenty, eastern Taupo and Taihape, plus the ranges of Marlborough and eastern Nelson, as drawn on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand today.

A low pressure system approaches the north of the North Island from the subtropics during Wednesday morning, bringing northeasterly rain to northern New Zealand, with localised heavy falls possible. There is mostly a low risk of thunderstorms embedded in the rain for northern and eastern parts of Northland from late morning, as depicted on the chart, however from Bay of Islands to Kaitaia northwards the risk increases to moderate. Any thunderstorms that occur have the potential to bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 15 to 25 mm/h. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during Wednesday morning.

A subtropical low pressure system is forecast to move southwards over northern New Zealand during the latter half of Wednesday, bringing northeasterly rain to most of the North Island. There is a mostly a low risk of thunderstorms for Northland during the afternoon and evening, for Auckland, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula from afternoon, and for Waikato and Bay of Plenty north of Rotorua and west of Whakatane from evening, as depicted on the chart. There is also a low risk of localised downpours occurring in these areas. However, about northern and eastern Northland in the afternoon and evening, and about Auckland north of Takapuna in the evening and at night, the risk of thunderstorms increases to moderate. Localised rain rates of 10 to 25 mm/h is possible with thunderstorms, however with downpours localised rain rates of 25 to 40 mm/h are possible with or without thunderstorms. Meanwhile, daytime wind convergence over the northern South Island is expected to produce a few showers there. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the ranges of northern Westland, Grey, and southern Buller during the afternoon; and about inland Dunedin and Clutha, and eastern areas of Central Otago and Southland during the afternoon and evening. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.