A light west to northwest flow covers the North Island, while a shallow area of low pressure lies over the South Island. Over the North Island, there is a low risk of thunderstorms this morning from Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula southwards to North Taranaki, inland Whanganui, northern Manawatu and the Tararua District. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Hawke's Bay this afternoon, with a surrounding low risk that extends into the evening, as drawn on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also a low risk a few of the thunderstorms could be severe producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. Over the South Island, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for eastern parts of Marlborough and inland parts of Canterbury and Otago this afternoon and evening, with a surrounding low risk, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also a moderate risk a few of the thunderstorms could be severe producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h, and a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand today.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.

A weak ridge of high pressure covers the North Island, while a weak trough remains over the South Island. Daytime heating is expected to cause showers to develop where winds converge, mainly about inland areas of both islands, some of which could be heavy about the southern half of the South Island. During the afternoon and evening there is a low risk of thunderstorms for inland parts of Southland, Otago and Canterbury south of Mount Hutt, as drawn on the chart. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.