A complex low pressure system over the Tasman Sea is forecast to move onto the North Island from overnight Monday to Tuesday while a weak ridge lies over the South Island. The low should move east across the North Island on Wednesday. The ridge over the South Island gradually extends north across the North Island on Thursday while a weak cold front moves north over the South Island. It is followed by another ridge on Friday.

On Tuesday, there is high confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in Northland, while the confidence is moderate for Auckland including Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula.

There is also moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Bay of Plenty and eastern Waikato near the Kaimai Range during Tuesday and early Wednesday. From late Tuesday to Wednesday, there is low confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, but the confidence increases to moderate about Wairoa District.

Additionally, there is low confidence of of northeasterlies rising to severe gale in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland including the Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula during Tuesday.