Severe Weather Outlook

Valid from Sunday 04-Dec-2022 to Tuesday 06-Dec-2022

Issued: 11:12am Friday 2 Dec 2022

A ridge of high pressure extends over much of Aotearoa New Zealand on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, before slowly moving away to the east during Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a front moves onto the far south of the South Island on Sunday and weakens early Monday, bringing strong westerlies and some rain. Another front arrives there late Monday, and moves up the east of the South Island on Tuesday and weakens. This front brings a burst of rain to the lower South Island, with lesser amounts further north. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Fiordland late Monday and Tuesday.

A complex low and associated fronts approach from the Tasman Sea late Tuesday, with the fronts possibly moving onto the west South Island late Wednesday.













Low confidence:

a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:

a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Saturday, 03-Dec-2022

Issued: 7:18am Saturday 3 Dec 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Valid to Noon Sunday, 04-Dec-2022

Issued: 8:46am Saturday 3 Dec 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Valid to Midnight Sunday, 04-Dec-2022

Issued: 8:50am Saturday 3 Dec 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.