An intense low is expected to move slowly south over the far north and direct a moist easterly flow onto the upper North Island. Watches for severe gales and heavy rain have already been issued.
There is high confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate in Northland and Coromandel, moderate confidence for Auckland and low confidence for the north of Gisborne/Tairawhiti. There is moderate confidence that severe southeasterly gales will affect Northland and low confidence that severe easterly gales will affect Auckland.



A low pressure system affects the upper North Island, with a strong and moist easterly flow spreading farther south across the North Island.
There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations could approach warning criteria about Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti. However, confidence increases to moderate for eastern parts of Northland for a time in the morning, for Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula and far western Bay of Plenty for much of the day, and for the far north of Gisborne/Tairawhiti late in the day.
There is also low confidence that easterly gales could become severe from Northland to northern Waikato, about Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and also about far northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti.

A moist southeast flow is likely to affect the east of the North Island.
There is low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria about Gisborne/Tairawhiti.

A front moves east onto the lower South Island. Warning amounts of rain area not likely to accumulate. There is minimal risk of severe weather.

A ridge of high pressure is likely to bring settled weather to much of the country. There is minimal risk of severe weather.