The low should be east of the South Island by evening. The front over the North Island is expected to reach eastern Bay of Plenty at night. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about western Tasman, Buller, Grey and the far north of Westland during the afternoon. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 15 to 25 mm/h and small hail. About Northland and Great Barrier Island, there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon along with a low risk of localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. For Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti, there is a low risk of thunderstorms spreading eastwards, easing in Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty in the evening. For Taranaki, Tasman, Nelson, Buller, Grey, northern Westland, western Marlborough and inland North Canterbury, there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. For coastal areas of Whanganui, Manawatu, Horowhenua and Kapiti, there is a low risk of thunderstorms in the evening. Elsewhere, there is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.