A ridge of high pressure extends over much of Aotearoa New Zealand on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, before slowly moving away to the east during Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a front moves onto the far south of the South Island on Sunday and weakens early Monday, bringing strong westerlies and some rain. Another front arrives there late Monday, and moves up the east of the South Island on Tuesday and weakens. This front brings a burst of rain to the lower South Island, with lesser amounts further north. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Fiordland late Monday and Tuesday.

A complex low and associated fronts approach from the Tasman Sea late Tuesday, with the fronts possibly moving onto the west South Island late Wednesday.