Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:37am Friday 14 Feb 2025

Valid Sunday 16-Feb-2025

The ridge of high pressure slowly weakens, and a showery easterly flow covers the upper North Island, while a northeast flow covers central and southern New Zealand.

There is minimal risk of severe weather affecting the country.

Valid Monday 17-Feb-2025

A subtropical low north of the North Island directs a humid easterly flow across the island, with rain or showers from spreading across northern and central New Zealand. There is low confidence of rainfall accumulations meeting warning criteria for Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti.

Valid Tuesday 18-Feb-2025

A broad trough of low pressure moves eastwards across New Zealand, with rain or showers for most regions. A strong, moist north to northeast flow is likely to affect northern and central New Zealand.
There is low confidence of rainfall accumulations meeting warning criteria for Coromandel Peninsula, parts of Bay of Plenty, northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Tasman.

Valid Wednesday 19-Feb-2025

An unsettled showery westerly flow affects New Zealand.

There is minimal risk of severe weather affecting the country.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Saturday, 15-Feb-2025

Issued: 8:21pm Friday 14 Feb 2025

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.