Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: 10:54am Friday 4 Oct 2024
Valid Sunday 06-Oct-2024
There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria over Mount Taranaki/Taranaki Mounga and east to Tongariro National Park, the Tararua Range, western Tasman and the Buller District.
There is moderate confidence that the northwest winds will reach severe gale force about Wairarapa, including the Tararua District, Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds, and low confidence about inland Marlborough and Canterbury.
Valid Monday 07-Oct-2024
There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria over Mount Taranaki/Taranaki Mounga, the Tararua Range, Fiordland and the ranges of the Westland District.
There is moderate confidence that the northwest winds will reach severe gale force about Wairarapa, including the Tararua District, Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds.
Valid Tuesday 08-Oct-2024
There is moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall in Fiordland, the ranges of Westland and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers.
There is low confidence that west to northwest gales could become severe over Wellington, Wairarapa, the Tararua District, Central Hawke's Bay, Marlborough and inland Canterbury. There is also low confidence that westerlies about Stewart Island and the southern South Island will reach warning strength.
Valid Wednesday 09-Oct-2024
Some rain is likely with the front, but there is minimal risk that warnings will be needed.
Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.
Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST
Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to Midnight Saturday, 05-Oct-2024
Issued: 8:24pm Friday 4 Oct 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.