Severe Weather Outlook

Valid from Sunday 30-Jan-2022 to Wednesday 02-Feb-2022

Issued: 1:39pm Friday 28 Jan 2022

Heavy rain for the West Coast of the South Island.

A large high lies across much of New Zealand from Sunday through to Tuesday, bringing settled weather to most areas. On Wednesday, a front is forecast to move onto the South Island, bringing heavy northerly rain. The heaviest falls are most likely in Fiordland and over southern and central parts of Westland, with moderate confidence of accumulations reaching warning amounts. Note, the heavy rain may continue over Westland into the latter part of next week, and forecasters will monitor this front over the coming days.

Low confidence:

a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:

a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Friday, 28-Jan-2022

Issued: 8:16am Friday 28 Jan 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Valid to Noon Saturday, 29-Jan-2022

Issued: 7:44pm Friday 28 Jan 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period. Reviewed at 7:40pm Friday - No changes.



Valid to Midnight Saturday, 29-Jan-2022

Issued: 7:44pm Friday 28 Jan 2022

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period. Reviewed at 7:40pm Friday - No changes.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.