A ridge of high pressure covers much of the country today. A weak front preceded by a moist northwesterly flow brings a low risk of thunderstorms to Fiordland south of George Sound until late evening. Meanwhile, daytime heating and sea breezes are likely to combine to produce showers about some other parts of the country. Over the South Island, there is mostly a low risk of thunderstorms for inland Marlborough, and much of Canterbury, Otago and Southland this afternoon and evening. However, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate for inland parts of Canterbury, and parts of Southland and Otago during this time, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely be accompanied by brief heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm/h, and hail 10 to 20 mm in diameter. Over the North Island, there is mostly a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for northern and eastern areas from Northland to Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Hawke's Bay, as drawn on the chart. However, for central and northern parts of Northland there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during this time. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely be accompanied by brief heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and hail 5 to 15 mm in diameter. There is also a low risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS developing in this area, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. During the afternoon and evening there is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for eastern Taupo and inland parts of Bay of Plenty, Gisborne/Tairawhiti, and the Wairoa District, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur here will likely be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and hail 10 to 20 mm in diameter. There is also a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS developing in this area, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h, and hail larger than 20 mm in diameter. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for these areas. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during Wednesday.

Daytime heating and wind convergence are expected to produce cloud buildups in the north of inland Gisborne/Tairawhiti and the far northeastern ranges of Bay of Plenty. There is a low risk of one or two late morning thunderstorms in these areas. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during Thursday morning.

Daytime heating and wind convergence are expected to produce showers about the northeast of the North Island during the afternoon and evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the far northeastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti during the afternoon, surrounded by a slightly broader low risk of thunderstorms that continues into the early evening, as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will generate localised heavy rain (10 to 25 mm per hour). Meanwhile, a front approaches the south of the South Island from the Tasman Sea. A low risk of elevated thunderstorms embedded in rain spreads northwards from Stewart Island to the far south of Westland from afternoon onwards. However, during the evening and at night the risk is moderate for Fiordland. Thunderstorms will increase local rainfall rates (up to 25 mm per hour). There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this time.