A southeasterly flow lies over northern and central New Zealand. This flow is expected to weaken on Saturday and Sunday as a slow-moving low east of the North Island moves away from the country. A rain-band embedded within the flow moves southwards onto the eastern North Island on Friday and Saturday.

There is low confidence that rainfall will reach warning criteria about Tairawhiti/Gisborne and Hawke's Bay north of about Waipukurau on Friday, then moderate confidence on Saturday. There is also low confidence that warning amounts of rain will spread further west and south into the hills and ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Taihape, Manawatu, the rest of Hawke's Bay, Tararua District and Wairarapa on Saturday.

The rain-band is expected to weaken late Saturday.

A series of fronts should cross the south of the South Island during Sunday and Monday. There is low confidence that the fronts will bring warning amounts of rain to Fiordland on Sunday and Monday.