Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 9:13am Tuesday 27 Jan 2026

Valid Thursday 29-Jan-2026

A high covers the North Island as a weakening front moves northeast across the South Island. However, the risk of severe weather is minimal.

Valid Friday 30-Jan-2026

A ridge of high pressure brings settled weather to much of New Zealand. The risk of severe weather is minimal.

Valid Saturday 31-Jan-2026

A ridge of high pressure brings settled weather to much of New Zealand. The risk of severe weather is minimal.

Valid Sunday 01-Feb-2026

A ridge of high pressure covers the North Island. A northwesterly flow strengthens over the South Island as a front approaches from the west. The risk of severe weather is however considered minimal.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Wednesday, 28-Jan-2026

Issued: 8:06pm Tuesday 27 Jan 2026

A combination of wind convergence and afternoon and early evening heating is expected to bring a low risk of a few thunderstorms to inland parts of the central North Island, as depicted on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.