Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:10am Sunday 8 Feb 2026

Valid Tuesday 10-Feb-2026

A ridge of high pressure covers most of New Zealand, with daytime heating and wind convergence expected to produce showers about inland parts of the North Island.

Meanwhile, a trough embedded in a strong northwesterly flow is expected to bring rain to Fiordland, and there is low confidence accumulations will reach warning criteria there.

Valid Wednesday 11-Feb-2026

A trough embedded in a strong northwesterly flow weakens over southern New Zealand, while an east to northeast flow covers the remainder of the nation.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Thursday 12-Feb-2026

The northerly flow over southern New Zealand strengthens ahead of a front approaching from the Tasman Sea. An east to northeast flow covers the remainder of the country.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Valid Friday 13-Feb-2026

A front, preceded by a strong northerly flow, weakens as it moves over the South Island. Meanwhile, a trough preceded by humid northerlies may move onto the North Island from the north.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Sunday, 08-Feb-2026

Issued: 7:29am Sunday 8 Feb 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Valid to Noon Monday, 09-Feb-2026

Issued: 9:03am Sunday 8 Feb 2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.



Valid to Midnight Monday, 09-Feb-2026

Issued: 9:10am Sunday 8 Feb 2026

Daytime heating and wind convergence are expected to cause showers to develop about inland parts of the North Island. Some of these showers could be heavy during the afternoon and evening, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms, as depicted on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.