Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: 10:13am Thursday 6 Nov 2025
Valid Saturday 08-Nov-2025
A weak ridge lies over much of the country. A front moving north may reach the southern South Island late in the day, bringing some rain and strong winds.
There is minimal risk of severe weather.
Valid Sunday 09-Nov-2025
The front continues to bring rain or showers to the southern South Island. A low is likely to form on the front over the Tasman Sea and move towards the country. A northwest flow becomes established over the rest of New Zealand. There may be afternoon convection about much of the North Island, bringing localised heavy showers.
There is minimal risk of severe weather.
Valid Monday 10-Nov-2025
The front and associated low, should cross the South Island during the day. These features are expected to bring rain to many places and strong winds to parts of the South Island and southern North Island. For the Westland ranges and northern Fiordland, there is low confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall.
Valid Tuesday 11-Nov-2025
A front moving northwards over the North Island should weaken and the rain should ease. A ridge of high pressure is expected to move onto the South Island and southern North Island. A low may be approaching the north of the North Island late in the day.
There is minimal risk of severe weather.
Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.
Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST
Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to Midnight Thursday, 06-Nov-2025
Issued: 5:08pm Thursday 6 Nov 2025
Sea breeze convergences along the east of the South Island, with the addition of a front moving onto the eastern parts of Southland and Otago, produce showers this evening. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for inland parts of eastern Southland, Clutha, Dunedin and much of North Otago this evening, while the risk increases to moderate for Dunedin. These thunderstorms may be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm/h and possibly small hail. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.
Valid to Noon Friday, 07-Nov-2025
Issued: 9:02am Thursday 6 Nov 2025
A trough moves over Northland from the north during the morning and there is an associated low risk of thunderstorms for northern Northland. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.
Valid to Midnight Friday, 07-Nov-2025
Issued: 9:05am Thursday 6 Nov 2025
Afternoon heating and sea breeze convergences set up over the upper and central North Island during the second half of Friday. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for Northland and inland areas of the central North Island mainly about the the ranges as indicated on the chart during afternoon and evening. However, the risk is considered moderate for western Northland where rain intensities could be 15 to 25 mm/h. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.