An active front is forecast to move east across New Zealand from the Tasman Sea on Tuesday, followed by a complex and slow moving low pressure system on Wednesday through to Friday. These weather systems are expected to bring rain to many parts of the country with the heaviest falls about the western regions of the South Island and the central and southern districts of the North Island.

There is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Westland and Fiordland on Tuesday, then again in Westland on Wednesday and Thursday.

The risk for warning amounts of rain in northwest Nelson is low on Tuesday, then again on Wednesday and the risk area extending south across all of Buller, with the risk increasing to moderate on Thursday as indicated on the chart. On Thursday and Friday, there is moderate confidence that a rain warning will be required for Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo, Taihape, northern Taranaki including the Mountain, and also about the Tararua Range, meanwhile the risk is low for ranges of Bay of Plenty east of Whakatane.

In addition, on Tuesday there is moderate confidence of severe north to northeast gales affecting inland parts of Marlborough, the Canterbury High Country, the Otago Lakes, and also Westland and Fiordland. On Thursday and Friday, there is low confidence of northwest gales becoming severe in exposed parts of the North Island from Taranaki across the central high country to Gisborne and northwards.