A strong, cold south to southwest flow covers the country. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about many coastal areas, from Northland to Taranaki and from Gisborne/Tairawhiti to northern Marlborough, as well as more inland areas of Wellington and Wairarapa. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms about the Chatham Islands this afternoon and evening. About coastal Wairoa District, Mahia Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairawhiti south of Gisborne City, the risk of thunderstorms is moderate for a time in the afternoon. These thunderstorms may be bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 5 to 15 mm per hour, small hail and wind gusts of 80 to 90 km/h. The thunderstorm risk decreases to minimal about the west of the North Island, Wellington, southern Wairarapa and Marlborough around midday and about the rest of Wairarapa during the afternoon. For the rest of New Zealand, there is minimal risk of thunderstorms or severe convection.

A cold southerly flow covers much of the country. A low is expected to lie east of Hawke's Bay and move slowly north during the day. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the coastal areas of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and the Wairoa District during the morning. For the rest of New Zealand, the risk of severe convection or thunderstorms is minimal.

The low should be east of Gisborne/Tairawhiti by the afternoon. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the Gisborne/Tairawhiti coast north of Gisborne City during the afternoon and early evening. For the rest of New Zealand, the risk of severe convection or thunderstorms is minimal.