A strong moist northwest flow with embedded rain-bands covers New Zealand this morning. Later, a cold front moves northwards over the South Island bringing a cold southerly change. The southerly change reaches coastal Southland and Clutha late this morning with a period of rain that persists into the afternoon. This rain gives way to showers towards evening. Some showers are expected to be heavy with hail, and there is a low risk of thunderstorms there during the evening, as indicated on the chart. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain about Westland during the afternoon, and about Buller and Kahurangi National Park through much of the period. (The risks for these areas is considered low during the morning.) Any thunderstorms that occur will boost local rainfall rates to 15-25mm/h or possibly higher. Rain spreads onto the North Island during the second half of Tuesday along with a low risk of thunderstorms for western coastal areas from Waitomo southwards from evening onwards, and about the far North of Northland at night. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere on Tuesday.