Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 10:51am Saturday 27 Apr 2024

Valid Monday 29-Apr-2024

An area of high pressure brings settled weather to much of the country.

Valid Tuesday 30-Apr-2024

A front preceded by a strong moist northwesterly flow is expected to move northeast over the southern and central South Island. There is a low confidence that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in Fiordland and the Westland District. There is a low confidence that northwesterly gales will become severe for a time in Fiordland, Southland, Otago and the Canterbury high country.

Valid Wednesday 01-May-2024

A cold southwesterly flow spreads north over the South Island but severe weather is unlikely.

Valid Thursday 02-May-2024

A cold southwesterly flow is expected to bring rain or showers to many areas. Severe weather is however considered unlikely.

Low confidence:

A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.

Moderate confidence:

A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

High confidence:

a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30 NZST

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Saturday, 27-Apr-2024

Issued: 7:09am Saturday 27 Apr 2024

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Valid to Noon Sunday, 28-Apr-2024

Issued: 7:36am Saturday 27 Apr 2024

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Valid to Midnight Sunday, 28-Apr-2024

Issued: 7:37am Saturday 27 Apr 2024

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.



Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.